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Academic Journal
Marketing

“An Empirical Study of Strategic Opacity in Crowdsourced Quality Evaluationsâ€

Crowd-voting mechanisms are commonly used to implement scalable evaluations of crowdsourced creative submissions. Unfortunately, the use of crowd-voting also raises the potential for gaming and manipulation. Manipulation is problematic because i) submitters’ motivation depends on their belief that the system is meritocratic, and ii) manipulated feedback may undermine learning, as submitters seek to learn from received evaluations and those of peers. In this work, we consider a design approach to addressing the issue, focusing on the notion of strategic opacity, i.e., purposefully obfuscating evaluation procedures. On the one hand, opacity may reduce the incentive and thus prevalence of vote manipulation, and submitters may instead dedicate that time and effort to improving their submission quantity or quality. On the other hand, because opacity makes it difficult for submitters to discern the returns to legitimate effort, submitters may also reduce their submission effort, or simply exit the market. We explore this tension via a multi-method study employing field experiments at 99designs and a controlled experiment on Amazon Mechanical Turk. We observe consistent results across all experiments: opacity leads to reductions in gaming in these crowdsourcing contests, and significant increases in the allocation of effort toward legitimate versus illegitimate activities, with no discernible influence on contest participation. We discuss boundary conditions and the implications for contest organizers and contest platform operators.
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Academic Journal
Finance

“An Examination of the Differential Impact of Regulation FD on Analysts' Forecast Accuracyâ€

Regulation fair disclosure (FD) requires companies to publicly disseminate information, effectively preventing the selective pre-earnings announcement guidance to analysts common in the past. We investigate the effects of Regulation FD's reducing information disparity across analysts on their forecast accuracy. Proxies for private information, including brokerage size and analyst company-specific experience, lose their explanatory power for analysts' relative accuracy after Regulation FD. Analyst forecast accuracy declines overall, but analysts that are relatively less accurate (more accurate) before Regulation FD improve (deteriorate) after implementation. Our findings are consistent with selective guidance partially explaining variation in the forecasting accuracy of analysts before Regulation FD.
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Academic Journal
Supply Chain

“An Exploratory First Step in Teletraffic Data Modeling: Evaluation of Long-run Performance of Parameter Estimatorsâ€

Examination of the tail behavior of a distribution F that generates teletraffic measurements is an important first step toward building a network model that explains the link between heavy tails and long-range dependence exhibited in such data. When knowledge of the tail behavior of F is vague, the family of the generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs) can be used to approximate the tail probability of F, and the value of its shape parameter characterizes the tail behavior. To detect tail behavior of F between two host computers on a network, the estimation procedure must be carried out over all possible combinations of host computers, and thus, the performance of the estimator under repeated use becomes the primary concern. In this article, we evaluate the long-run performance of several existing estimation procedures and propose a Bayes estimator to overcome some of the shortcomings. The conditions in which the procedures perform well in the long run are reported, and a simple rule of thumb for choosing an appropriate estimator for the task of repeated estimation is recommended.
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